Tropical Storm Bret has formed in the Atlantic Ocean.
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Just before 11 a.m. Monday, the wave now known as Bret became Tropical Depression 3.
Just ahead of the 5 p.m. advisory, the depression became Tropical Storm Bret, which is now over the E. Atlantic. Bret is forecast to move west/northwest and become a hurricane before weakening while over or near the Caribbean.
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Here’s what Action News Jax First Alert Weather Chief Meteorologist Mike Buresh says we can expect:
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The system is continuing to show signs of organization while moving west.
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Conditions are favorable for intensification into possibly a hurricane, though the wave will encounter some dry air and pockets of stronger wind shear, especially upon approach to the Northeast Caribbean and/or Puerto Rico by the weekend.
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From there, the wave should turn more northwest, possibly more northward moving into or near the SW Atlantic next weekend or shortly thereafter. It’s still too early to determine the movement much beyond late in the week/next weekend.
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At the moment, at least into next weekend, it would appear some troughing will remain over or near the Eastern U.S. The location of this trough could/should prove critical on the ultimate path in the long range.
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Long-range global models remain in fairly remarkable agreement considering it’s still so early in the game and so early in the season. The European model has been weaker on intensity and therefore, farther west (steered by the prevailing easterlies) before turning northward near Puerto Rico. The GFS model has been consistently strong with a fairly sharp turn north by late in the week into the weekend far to the east of the Caribbean & U.S.
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So this is a “stay tuned” situation across the Atlantic Basin and don’t let the strong wave way out to the east overshadow the possibility of quick tropical development over the Gulf near Florida by late in the week.
Get more details in the latest entry of Talking the Tropics With Mike.
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