The loss of Karl-Anthony Towns will surely hurt the Timberwolves offensively, but it also may help them on defense against bigs like Anthony Davis in a weird way. Our NBA picks explain why this will all lead to a low-scoring affair.
Both the Minnesota Timberwolves and Los Angeles Lakers need every win they can get. The Timberwolves are half a game back of the No. 1 seed in the West, a three-team race that feels like it will come down to the season’s final week, while the Lakers can still justifiably think about escaping the Play-In Tournament.
The NBA odds posted the spread within a bucket, and those kinds of stakes make a determined handicap more difficult. Those kinds of stakes should also influence the total, tense play keeping scoring at a premium.
That is both a logical play based on the situation and a smart one based on the personnel, a fact I’ll dive into in my free NBA picks for the Timberwolves vs. Lakers on March 10.
Timberwolves vs Lakers odds
Timberwolves vs Lakers predictions
Set aside the stakes, a reality albeit an intangible one. Two more measurable realities should inspire an Under tonight in Los Angeles.
First of all, few teams are as reliant on free throws as the Minnesota Timberwolves and Los Angeles Lakers. Amid increasing speculation with more and more data that the NBA subtly emphasized some rules to referees during the All-Star break, the teams that are most dependent on drawing fouls are enjoying fewer of them. Physical drives are going uncalled.
This first showed up in an influx of Unders across the league following the All-Star break. As we watch more of this, the impact is most seen on teams that live at the line.
Los Angeles has lived at the line, ranking No. 2 in the NBA in free throw attempts per game in the month before the All-Star Break. Since the break, the Lakers have taken just 17.9 free throws per game in nine outings — down nearly eight attempts.
That is not a trivial change.
Minnesota’s dip has been less, falling only by an attempt, but that is still worth noting. The sportsbook’s math should catch up to this trend soon, but it may take a bit longer when it comes to teams that get to the line as often as these two.
Free-throw rate is an underappreciated piece of betting totals. Be conservative and say the two teams would combine to make only 75% of those nine lost attempts, that is still six or seven lost points.
Another underappreciated piece of betting totals is transition buckets. That may be where Karl-Anthony Towns’ impact is most noted. Other pieces of the Timberwolves offense have to end possessions in his absence. His 15.5 field goal attempts per game do not simply disappear.
His 2.8 turnovers per game, however, can. And most of Towns’ turnovers quickly lead to transition buckets for the opposition. Take away a transition opportunity or two, and the total is again impacted.
A relative scarcity of free throw attempts and a more disciplined Minnesota offense should cost any pursuit of this total.
My best bet: Under 221.5 (-110 at BetRivers)
Timberwolves vs Lakers same-game parlay
Under 221.5
Anthony Davis Under 23.5 points
Jaden McDaniels Over 12.5 points
Both additional aspects of this same-game parlay are tied to Towns’ absence, a relatively new piece of this season, new enough that its impacts are not fully realized.
Towns has long struggled defending athletic, playmaking big men like Domantas Sabonis and Anthony Davis. By no coincidence, Davis has long been a thorn in Minnesota’s side.
Putting Kyle Anderson and Naz Reid — with a touch of Rudy Gobert — on Davis will help the Timberwolves. Those first two are quicker than Towns, the kinds of defenders that should be able to stop Davis from getting into a drive with regularity.
Jaden McDaniels should be the offensive version of that adjustment. In some games, it’ll be a boost compared to Towns, like Anderson and Reid defensively on Davis. This is not inherently one of those for McDaniels, but he should still keep taking extra shots without Towns in the lineup, and it is vital to Minnesota that McDaniels find confidence in his shot.
Anthony Edwards and Mike Conley should find chances to penetrate against the Lakers’ porous perimeter defense, but Davis and LeBron James may force them to drive and dish. McDaniels will be a beneficiary, those moments assuredly helping his confidence.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Timberwolves vs Lakers spread and Over/Under analysis
Minnesota opened as a one-point favorite late on Saturday, a number that quickly jumped to +1, effectively a one-point swing when remembering basketball games cannot end tied.
Anthony Edwards’ remaining on the injury report with some ankle worry may have impacted that, but more likely, it is the betting public favoring Los Angeles at home, and understandably so.
The total opened at 223.5 and quickly fell to 222.5 before falling further on Sunday to 221. Consider that a gradual understanding of the new rules in the NBA following the All-Star break.
Timberwolves vs Lakers betting trend to know
The Lakers are 3-6 against the spread since the All-Star break. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Lakers.
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Timberwolves vs Lakers game info
| Location: | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, March 10, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Timberwolves vs Lakers latest injuries
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