Tiger Makes Return at Riviera

All eyes will be on Tiger Woods this week as he gears up to make his first start of the 2024 season. The odds aren’t on his side, however, which we break down in our full Genesis Invitational betting preview below.

With the Phoenix Open in the rearview, the PGA Tour now gears up for one of the more demanding tests of the year at Riviera Country Club. 

And while it’s again Scottie Scheffler at the top of the golf odds board, all eyes will be on Tiger Woods as he makes his first start since the Hero World Challenge in December.

With competitive rust to shake off and a tough test ahead, oddsmakers are skeptical about his chances this week. Read more in our Genesis Invitational betting preview below, with free golf picks to be added later in the week.

Best 2024 Genesis Invitational picks

Odds to win the 2024 Genesis Invitational

Genesis Invitational picks and predictions

Sahith Theegala Top 20 (+120)

There’s a lot to love about the trajectory Sahith Theegala is on and the fact he’s been in contention a couple of times already this year is a big reason why.

This is a guy who quietly ranks 17th in this field in true total strokes gained over the last six months with ranks as high as third (putting) and no worse than 25th (approach) across the five major categories over that stretch.

His track record here at Riviera includes him making the weekend here as an amateur in 2017 and again as a pro in 2022 before piecing it all together in a career-best T6 result a season ago where he ranked fourth on approach and sixth from tee to green.

He had the solo lead through 36 holes in Phoenix last week and I love his chances of getting back in the mix at Riv after experiencing some success this time last year.

Pick: Sahith Theegala Top 20 (+120 at FanDuel)

Tony Finau over Tommy Fleetwood (-120)

While you may give a slight nod to Tommy Fleetwood’s form thanks to a win in Dubai, it’s negligible considering these guys rank 11th and 12th in this field in true total strokes gained over the last three months.

I value Tony Finau’s distance off the tee in addition to some critical edges in ball-striking this week: he’s fourth in true strokes gained approach and sixth from tee-to-green in this field over the last three months — Fleetwood is 27th and 12th, respectively.

The fact Tony has a near decade’s worth of experience here at Riviera compared to Fleetwood’s three career starts doesn’t hurt either. He’s got four finishes at the Genesis that are better or as good as Fleetwood’s career-best T20 from a season ago, among those are runner-up finishes in 2018 and 2021.

All of that points to Tony on the big boy course and the -120 juice isn’t enough to deter me.

Pick: Tony Finau over Tommy Fleetwood (-120 at Bet99)

Tiger Woods odds to win the Genesis Invitational

As much attention as Tiger Woods may garner this week, the odds aren’t giving him the same love. He’s as short as 100/1 but as long as 175/1 outright with finishing position markets that are far from bullish on his chances of a good week.

bet365 has him at +1,000 for a Top-10 finish and +130 for a Top 30, something he hasn’t done in 4+ years if you exclude him finishing 18th out of 20 guys at the Hero World in December.

And while we love to root for Tiger, those long odds don’t come without merit. We’re more than two months removed from that December start and we know Riviera to be one of the tougher challenges on the Tour schedule. He finished T45 here a season ago.

Genesis Invitational field and favorites

Beyond Tiger, this is a top-shelf field, with World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Viktor Hovland playing the headliners. 

It’s becoming mundane to describe Scheffler’s status as a weekly favorite, but until his ball-striking dips below his insane standard or someone else catches fire, his No. 1 position remains untouched.

You can find him in the 7/1 range this week after a T3 finish at TPC Scottsdale in which he led the field in strokes gained tee-to-green and strokes gained approach by a country mile (43rd in putting for what it’s worth).

Rory McIlroy is running second in the +850 to +900 range and he’ll be eager to get back on track after a T66 finish at Pebble Beach. He did have a share of the lead on Thursday but quickly became unraveled as the week went on. Such could be said for Viktor Hovland, who’s on the board at 12/1 after finishing T58 at Pebble two weeks ago.

Xander Schauffle is the clear No. 4 option (also T54 at Pebble Beach), followed by a collection of guys in the 15/1 to 20/1 range: Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay, 2021 champion Max Homa, Justin Thomas, and Ludvig Aberg.

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Genesis Invitational recent winners and odds history

Let’s take a look at some recent Genesis Invitational winners and their closing odds to win:

Odds courtesy of GolfOdds.

Genesis Invitational Odds FAQs

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