Spain vs Germany Odds, Picks & Predictions – Olympic Women’s Soccer

Spain must be disappointed to miss out on the gold medal match after dominating Brazil, but bettors can use that latter fact to their advantage in Friday’s consolation tilt vs. an overmatched Germany.

Aug 8, 2024 • 22:48 ET

• 4 min read

Spain always expected to be playing for a medal at the 2024 Olympics — the only surprise is that La Roja have missed out on gold and will be contesting the bronze medal game against Germany instead.

The Spaniards fell to Brazil after an error-riddled semifinal performance, squandering the chance to add a gold medal to their 2023 World Cup and 2024 Nations League trophies, and now clash with a German team that came up just short in an extra-time loss to the USWNT in midweek.

My Spain vs. Germany predictions and free betting picks break down the action.

Spain vs. Germany prediction and best bet

Spain eases the pain

Match prediction
Spain moneyline (-118)

My analysis

Even as the clock ticked down in Tuesday’s semifinal, there was a sense that Spain’s attacking superstars could still find a way back and overcome a shambolic defensive outing. It just wasn’t their night.

I’m not giving up on La Roja, though. I expect the Spaniards to be fired up after the setback against Brazil, and the prospect of going home without a medal is unimaginable for a team of champions.

We could see Montse Tomé freshen things up for this contest given the heavy minutes that key players have logged in the knockout rounds, and that likely means a starting spot for Alexia Putellas.

The decision to leave Putellas on the bench for the semifinal was a puzzling one. She was a bright spark when she came on, and Spain are at their best when she’s connecting with Barcelona teammate Aitana Bonmati.

Whichever front three starts for La Roja, I see them creating chances. But it’s hard to say the same thing about a banged-up German attack that’s played 240 minutes of knockout soccer at these Olympics without scoring a single goal.

Though Germany was lethal in the final third during the group stage, they’ve been shut out by both Canada and the USWNT since then. They managed just one shot on target against the Canadians.

The Germans could also be dealing with key absences again here. Alexandra Popp missed the semifinal due to an illness and could return to chase the bronze medal, but Lea Schüller’s tournament may be over after suffering a knee injury. Defender Marina Hegering is another injury doubt.

Spain haven’t walked away with a victory from any of the past four meetings between these teams, but I’m picking the World Cup winners to finish this tournament on a high note and edge this all-European battle.

La Roja forwards roar

My best bet
Spain Over 1.5 goals (-125)

My analysis

This ultra-talented Spanish team didn’t make their 76% possession count against Brazil, but it wasn’t for the lack of trying. La Roja racked up 27 shots as Tomé turned to just about every attacking option in her squad over the course of the 90 minutes.

Though defensive blunders sunk Spain on Tuesday, the attack still peppered the Brazilian goal, and I see Bonmati & Co. being more clinical with their chances here. That makes the Over on 1.5 Spanish goals worth a long look.

La Roja have scored two or more goals in four of their five outings at this tournament, on the heels of netting at least twice in seven of their eight fixtures during their Nations League run.

With an embarrassment of attacking riches, the Spaniards are well-placed to unlock a stubborn German defense that’s coming off two grueling games. Salma Paralluelo was a constant threat in the semifinal, Putellas looked sharp and Bonmati was busy as usual. If Tomé can press the right buttons with her team selection, I expect the Spain forwards to grab the headlines today.

Germany have shown impressive solidity and discipline in the knockout rounds, but it’s worth remembering that they were swept aside by the USWNT during the group stage and may be forced into further reshuffling their starting line-up to address a growing injury list.

Neither team will want to leave the Olympics empty-handed but it’s hard to look past Spain’s superior cutting edge — and we could be about to see a major backlash in response to the semifinal horror show.