Portugal vs United States Predictions & Odds

The United States are heavy favorites but simply winning won’t be enough to satisfy. They need to protect their goal differential lead to secure a better matchup in the next round. With Portugual desperate, see how our betting picks expect it to play out.

The fate of Group E hangs in the balance on Wednesday, as Portugal and the United States square off in their final group stage match at the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup.

Portugal look to extend their stay at their first appearance in the tournament but need a win in order to make that happen. For the United States, any result will see them through, but a draw would almost certainly ensure a tough matchup with Sweden in the Round of 16 and a difficult path to the final.

Each team will be looking to find goals. Find out why that plays into our best bet in our picks and preview for Portugal vs USA on Tuesday, August 1.  

Portugal vs United States odds

Portugal		United States
+1,100	Moneyline	-470
+490	Draw	+490
Over 2.5 (-125)	Total	Under 2.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel on July 31, 2023.

Portugal vs United States picks and predictions

Portugal are no strangers to having to play until the very end to ensure survival. Look no further than to their road to their first-ever Women’s World Cup, where a stoppage-time penalty against Cameroon sent them through. 

But this isn’t a situation where they can play as they did against the Netherlands, seeking to sit back and absorb pressure. They’re likely going to try early on, but eventually, they’ll be forced to come out and play. Otherwise, they’re going home after the group stage.

Why does that play into our best bet? Because the United States not only need to win, they need to maintain a superior goal advantage over the Dutch. Their 3-0 win over Vietnam was a smaller gap than many expected, and the Netherlands will be taking on the Southeast Asian nation at the same time as this match.

Vietnam have already been eliminated from the competition, meaning they’ll likely have some reserves getting a terrific experience of playing in the tournament. The Dutch trail the USA by only two in the goal differential department, and the Americans will be cognisant of the other scoreline.

So as Portugal bunker early, the Americans will be desperate to force them out of their shells as quickly as possible. Enter midfielder Lindsey Horan. 

When Vietnam was packing it in during the opening match, Horan let it fly. Her five shots were tied for the most on the team, and it was her 77th-minute strike that made the final scoreline. 

While only one effort reached goal due to Vietnam blocking everything in sight, Horan showed she’s a threat regardless of style of play against the Netherlands. She registered another three efforts against the Dutch and put two on target, including the header that earned them a point as she leveled the score at 62 minutes.

Horan’s price of +260 at FanDuel presents tremendous value. The other top shot-takers for the United States are Alex Morgan (-125) and Sophia Smith (+110), and her price being more than double theirs is something you can’t pass up. 

Whether it’s in the air, shooting from distance against a packed-in Portuguese defense, or being the trailer on the counter-attack, take Horan to test the keeper at least twice on Tuesday.

My best bet: Lindsey Horan 2+ shots on target (+260 at FanDuel)

Portugal vs United States same-game parlay

Horan 2+ shots on target (+260)

USA ML (-450)

Away team Over 6.5 corners (+118)

The United States will win the match. They simply have too much talent and, more importantly, vastly superior depth. They also know how to win in do-or-die situations such as this and will do so on Tuesday. That, along with Horan’s shots on goal, sets us up for a very profitable same-game parlay. 

Horan’s not going to be alone in shooting on sight. The United States took 18 shots against the Dutch, putting four on frame. That’s after taking 28 against Vietnam with seven finding the target. 

As Portugal try to survive, they’re going to be blocking as many of those shots as possible. That’s going to lead to corners, something of which the United States have forced many during this tournament. The Americans took nine corners against Vietnam and 11 against the Netherlands, and I expect them to register at least seven against Portugal.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Portugal vs United States spread and Over/Under analysis

There’s no question who the public is backing to claim victory, as the United States are priced at -375 or more to win the match. A draw can get you as high as +490 while backing a Portugal win pays out a hefty +1,100. 

Portugal have just two wins in their last six matches, both against lower-rated squads. For the Americans, their 1-1 draw with the Dutch ended a 10-match winning streak. 

Considering the goals the Americans need to top the Group E, the Over is also the preferred option. Priced between -120 and -140, bettors are encouraged to shop around if they’re looking to play the Over. 

The moneyline is far too juiced to play outright, but putting it into a parlay like ours is a solid move. I also like the first-half moneyline as an alternative play, which you can get as low as -130 at the time of writing. 

As for the total, I lean towards the Over but I didn’t include it in our parlay because I’m unsure of how long it will take the Americans to break through. Portugal need only to win by a single goal, so they could bunker the entire first half and try to go for it after halftime. I’d rather see how the opening 15 minutes play out and try to get a better price live.

Portugal vs United States game info

Portugal vs United States key injuries

Portugal: Fatima Pinto M (Doubtful).
United States: Rose Lavelle M (Probable).

Pages related to this topic