Free NFL Week 4 Pick: Patriots vs. 49ers Odds
Looking for New England Patriots vs. San Francisco 49ers free NFL picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Patriots taking on the 49ers on Sunday, September 29th at the Levi’s Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 4 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this New England San Francisco matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 4
(1-2) New England Patriots vs. San Francisco 49ers (1-2)
Date: Sunday, September 29th
Time: 4:05 ET
Venue: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara CA
NFL ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) New England +10 | San Francisco -10
NFL Moneyline Odds: New England +389 | San Francisco -526
NFL Betting Total: O/U 39.5
Get ready for an epic Week 4 NFL showdown as we dive into the thrilling matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and New England Patriots!
The 49ers, fresh off a gut-wrenching loss they should’ve never let slip away, are looking to rebound as 10-point favorites against a Patriots team that has shown little spark, dropping to 1-4 straight up in their last five contests.
New England’s defense is barely hanging on, and after their lifeless performance against the Jets, it’s hard to see how they can keep up with a hungry San Francisco squad eager to right the ship.
Last season, the Patriots and 49ers did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the 49ers have the leg up at 2-1.
The 49ers also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 53 points per game leading to an over/under record of 1-2.
New England Patriots
After a 24-3 loss to the Jets, the Patriots are now 1-2 for the season. New England fell behind early, trailing 7-0 after the 1st quarter and 14-3 at halftime. The Patriots’ only score came in the 2nd quarter on a field goal from Joey Slye.
New York extended their lead just before halftime and in the 4th quarter. The Patriots were +6.5 point underdogs and failed to cover the spread, and the 27 combined points were well below the over/under line of 39 points.
New England Patriots Stats
New England’s offense struggled in their 24-3 loss to the Jets, managing just 11 first downs and 61 total yards through the air. The Patriots were forced to throw just 15 times, as they were held to 78 yards on the ground. Jacoby Brissett was sacked seven times and finished with 98 yards passing, while leading the team with 18 passing attempts.
Antonio Gibson was their top rusher, gaining 29 yards on five attempts, and Demario Douglas led the team with 69 receiving yards on seven catches. The Patriots converted only 18.2% of their third down attempts and failed to find the endzone through the air.
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The Patriots’ defense had a tough time getting to the quarterback in their 24-3 loss to the Jets, with a -11 differential in QB hits. Despite this, they did manage to sack the quarterback twice. New England’s secondary struggled, allowing the Jets to throw for 267 yards, including two passing touchdowns. The Patriots’ run defense gave up 133 yards on 33 attempts.
One of the more surprising stats from this game is that the Patriots didn’t allow a single completion, as the Jets were able to put up 24 points without completing a pass. On third down, the Patriots allowed the Jets to convert 66.7% of their chances.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers missed a golden opportunity to take a commanding 24-14 lead in the 4th quarter when Jake Moody missed a 55-yard field goal with 2:48 remaining. The Rams capitalized on this, tying the game at 24 with 2:43 left in the 4th, and eventually winning it 27-24 with a field goal with five seconds remaining. San Francisco lost this one on the road, dropping their record to 1-2. They were favored by -6, and with the 3-point loss, they also failed to cover the spread.
After the 49ers led 14-0 in the 1st quarter, the Rams fought back to make it 14-7 at halftime. Each team added a touchdown in the 3rd quarter, and the 49ers kicked a field goal early in the 4th to take a 24-14 lead. However, the Rams scored 13 unanswered points to close out the game. Kyren Williams had a 3-yard rushing touchdown for the Rams in the 3rd quarter, and Tutu Atwell caught a 2-yard pass from Matthew Stafford for the game-tying score in the 4th.
San Francisco 49ers Stats
The 49ers’ offense had 25 first downs in their 27-24 loss to the Rams, with a total of 288 yards passing. Brock Purdy led the passing game, going 22/30 for 292 yards and three touchdowns. Jauan Jennings was a standout, catching 11 passes for 175 yards and all three of the 49ers’ receiving touchdowns.
On the ground, San Francisco rushed for 137 yards, with Jordan Mason leading the team with 77 yards on 19 carries. The 49ers’ offense converted on 54.5% of their third down attempts and allowed just one sack in the game.
In their 27-24 loss to the Rams, the 49ers’ defense allowed 198 passing yards. They also defended the run well, giving up just 98 yards on 26 attempts. Despite their strong effort against the run, the 49ers allowed the Rams to convert 41.7% of their third downs.
The 49ers’ defense recorded three sacks in the game and held the Rams to 296 total yards. The passing game was the biggest issue, as they allowed a touchdown through the air and didn’t allow a single completion percentage.
New England Patriots vs. San Francisco 49ers NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Patriots are 3-1-1 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the 49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Patriots are 5-5 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the 49ers have gone 5-5 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Patriots’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The 49ers’ have an over/under record of 1-1-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Patriots vs. 49ers Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | +330 | +388 | +9 | +10 |
| 49ers | -425 | -526 | -9 | -10 |
4* Free Week 4 NFL Betting Prediction: San Francisco -10
The 49ers own a 9-5 all-time series edge, including 4-2 at home, and with this game taking place at Levi’s Stadium, you can bet they’ll be ready to roll.
San Francisco is poised to make a statement, and with a Patriots offense struggling to find rhythm, this one looks like a runaway. Expect the Niners to dominate and cover the spread, bouncing back in a big way.
Our pick vs. the spread in this week four matchup between the 49ers and Patriots is to take the 49ers to cover as 10-point home favorites. We have the 49ers pulling off a BIG win by a score of 34-10.
For the over/under line, with the line sitting at 39.5 points, we like the over, with a projected combined score of 44 points.
Keep an eye on the live odds as we continue to bring you complimentary NFL handicapping picks all season long. Betting against the 49ers this week? Good luck—you’ll need it!
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New England Patriots vs. San Francisco 49ers NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Week 4 on deck.
Ways to watch #NEvsSF 👇
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) September 27, 2024
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