Toronto has had its fair share of issues to start the season, but the Washington Capitals haven’t fared much better. The Leafs have spent plenty of time in their opponent’s zone, and our NHL picks expect Matthews to take advantage of that Tuesday.
Welcome to the Frozen Frenzy folks! Thirty-two teams. Sixteen games. One night filled with hockey — and it gets underway with a matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Washington Capitals.
Both of these teams are on opposite ends of their Stanley Cup window, but an Auston Matthews vs. Alex Ovechkin showdown is sure to provide us with great value in the NHL player props market.
However, it’s been a struggle for Washington in the early part of the season… can Toronto take advantage? The NHL odds suggest it can. Find out how in my free NHL picks for this October 24 matchup between the Maple Leafs vs. Capitals.
Maple Leafs vs Capitals odds
Maple Leafs vs Capitals predictions
The Toronto Maple Leafs head into tonight’s matchup against the Washington Capitals on a winning note after a comeback win over the Lightning in overtime on Saturday night. The Leafs will hope to carry that momentum forward and make easy work of the struggling Caps.
It’s been a tough start for Washington, sitting at 1-2-1 with just five goals to its name. A large reason for those offensive struggles is that the puck seems to be in the Capitals’ end of the ice more than on the opposition’s. According to NHL Edge, the Caps have spent just 37.5{dec8eed80f8408bfe0c8cb968907362b371b4140b1eb4f4e531a2b1c1a9556e5} of time in the offensive zone compared to 45.5{dec8eed80f8408bfe0c8cb968907362b371b4140b1eb4f4e531a2b1c1a9556e5} of the game on their own end, leading to an average of 33 shots against a night.
Those numbers are nearly reversed for Toronto, which ranks in the 90th percentile in the league when it comes to offensive zone time, which has led to a league-high 38.6 shots per game.
Enter Auston Matthews, the Maple Leafs’ shooting machine and top offensive weapon.
With all of this ice time in the O-zone this season, Matthews has been able to fire pucks on goal at will, averaging six shots on goal per game. Considering the Caps’ defense is giving up 33 shots on net a night, that should be ample opportunity for Matthews to register 5+ shots — a number he’s hit four of five times this year.
In fact, the lone game Matthews didn’t hit the number was Saturday night against Tampa, and that was because he was saddled next to trigger-happy William Nylander for most of the night, who registered six shots in the contest. Monday’s practice lines suggest Matthews will be flanked by Mitch Marner and Calle Jarnkrok on Tuesday, and neither should be a big threat to steal shot attempts from 34.
Additionally, Washington has been the third-most penalized team in hockey, averaging 4.75 penalties per game. Presumably, there will be a few chances for Matthews to pad his shot total on the power play to try and reach the Over.
My best bet: Auston Matthews Over 4.5 shots on goal (-125 at SIA)
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Maple Leafs vs Capitals same-game parlay
My best bet is ineligible for the same-game parley, but how about one of those five shots from Matthews finding its way into the back of the net with an anytime goal?
After recording back-to-back hat tricks to start the year, Matthews has not found the score sheet since. That said, he does have 18 shots in those three games, with 3.27 goals scored below expectation according to Natural Stat Trick. With him playing against a team giving up high-volume shots like Washington, he could find a way to make one drop tonight.
The next part of tonight’s SGP is for the Maple Leafs to score the game’s first goal. Washington has been a slow starter in games and has yet to record a first-period tally, being outscored 5-0 in the opening frame. The Leafs offense should be able to take advantage of the weak defensive play from the Capitals and net the game’s first tally.
For the final leg of my parlay, I’ll also take the Buds to score Over the team total of 3.5 goals. Toronto averages the most quality scoring chances in the league this season and has cashed on this play in three of the five games this year. As for Washington, it’s given up 3.66 goals per game while allowing the ninth most high-danger chances given up.
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Maple Leafs vs Capitals moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Toronto opened up as a -160 favorite but has since climbed slightly to -165 with 70{dec8eed80f8408bfe0c8cb968907362b371b4140b1eb4f4e531a2b1c1a9556e5} of the public siding with the Buds — making up 80{dec8eed80f8408bfe0c8cb968907362b371b4140b1eb4f4e531a2b1c1a9556e5} of the total money wagered.
The Caps enter as +140 home dogs. Toronto has won four of the last five meetings between these two clubs and boasts a clear-cut superior lineup tonight in all aspects of the game. If you feel as confident in the Leafs as the public, you can get them to win in regulation at -110 or Toronto on the puck line at +140.
The Over/Under for this game is set at 6.5 goals. The Over is the favorite paying -120, with the Under paying even money (+100). Historically, the Over is 5-1-2 in the last eight meetings between these two clubs. However, Washington’s 1.25 goals per game doesn’t inspire hope for it to generate much offense. Perhaps the value play here is on the Under.
Maple Leafs vs Capitals betting trend to know
The Under is 4-0-2 in the Maple Leafs last five road games. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Capitals.
Maple Leafs vs Capitals game info
| Location: | Capital One Arena, Washington, DC |
| Date: | Tuesday, October 24, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, ESPN |
Maple Leafs vs Capitals latest injuries
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