The United States are whopping 22.5-point favorites against the Giannis-less Greeks with good reason. However, one player who hasn’t been showing up on the scorecard is Brandon Ingram and our betting picks don’t expect a change.
Day four of the 2023 FIBA World Cup sees the USA back in action after a comfortable opening win against New Zealand. The Americans will be looking to run up the score on Monday, August 28 against a Greek side that lost a lot of their punch when Giannis Antetokounmpo was forced to give the tournament a skip.
FIBA World Cup odds continue to favor the USA to take home gold, but with Canada continuing their excellent play, they still have something to prove during the group phase.
Our FIBA World Cup picks and predictions for Greece vs. USA zero in on one NBA star who is having difficulty finding his footing in international play.
Greece vs USA odds
| Greece |  USA |
|
|---|---|---|
| +22.5 (-110) | Spread | -22.5 (-110) |
| OTB | Moneyline | OTB |
| Over 178.5 (-110) | Total | Under 178.5 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings on August 27, 2023.
Greece vs USA picks and predictions
The USA are riding high. They’re perhaps not the most talented group the Americans could have envisaged, but the emergence of Anthony Edwards, Paolo Banchero, and Tyrese Haliburton puts them a step ahead of every other FIBA squad. They also have steady leadership from Jalen Brunson, an all-time coaching staff, and seemingly good role definition and chemistry.
Excepting one developing situation. New Orleans Pelicans star Brandon Ingram probably thought he was going to play the Kevin Durant role for Team USA, but the reality has been much different. Ingram has been stuck in the corner, off the ball, and has added very little value. This is a guy who averages nearly 25 points per game in the NBA and is averaging just 7.8 through five exhibition games.
Nothing has changed now that the games have begun to count. Despite the USA running the Kiwis off the court on Saturday, Ingram had little to do with it. He scored just two points on 1 of 4 shooting to go along with two turnovers. He drifted through his 15 minutes like he wasn’t engaged in the game at all.
Ingram has also publicly voiced his misgivings, which caused a minor media stir on Sunday. While acknowledging it’s hard to complain while the team is winning, he noted that he’s a little frustrated with his role right now.
While Brunson has done a decent job as a distributor, there’s no denying that the second unit distribution run by Haliburton and Austin Reaves is a more naturally gifted passing group. The first unit is not conducive to maximizing Ingram, but he also has himself to blame for not working harder off the ball. Ingram is used to being on the ball more often than not, and there’s little sign that he’s going to adapt rapidly enough to make a star-level impact for the USA in the group stage.
The USA have too many options to gift minutes to Ingram if he’s not going to buy into his role, or if he’s simply not going to make the most of his chances when they do arrive. Steve Kerr values unselfishness and sacrifice above all else, and I doubt he was pleased with Ingram’s comments to the media.
It’s possible he figures it out at some point, but with the rest of the USA team cohering and Ingram heading in the other direction, it makes his Under here a solid value proposition.
My best bet: Brandon Ingram Under 9.5 points (-102 at FanDuel)
Greece vs USA same-game parlay
Anthony Edwards 20+ points
Tyrese Haliburton 5+ assists
Austin Reaves 10+ points
With an Ingram points Under not available to include as part of Monday’s same-game parlay, we turn instead to the three USA players who I expect to come through with big performances. The second unit’s aforementioned one-two punch of Haliburton and Reaves, as well as Edwards.
Haliburton has taken to the FIBA game like a fish to water, and his penchant for injecting pace into Team USA’s offense has already proven invaluable many times over. What makes him and Reaves alike is that their skillsets are additive next to superstar talent, rather than someone like Ingram who does better as a top dog but is wasted next to similar star scorers.
Reaves, of course, broke out playing a tertiary offensive role for the Los Angeles Lakers last season alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis, so it’s not surprising he’s so good at playing off the ball but also knowing when to call his own shot. But it’s still incredible how comfortable he looks next to legit All-NBA talent.
Edwards had a rough start against New Zealand but was easily the USA’s best player in the exhibitions. I’ve little doubt he’ll be keen to put his stamp on this one.
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Greece vs USA spread and Over/Under analysis
The spread for Greece vs. USA is hovering between -22.5 and -23.5 in favor of Team USA, with oddsmakers giving the Americans’ lone European opponent of the group stage significantly more respect than they did to New Zealand.
The USA got off to a rocky start against New Zealand on Saturday, spearheaded by Edwards turning the ball over five times in the first half. As has so often been the case, the second unit helped restore order, and they rode a 54-point second half to win by 27. That was significantly worse than the 36.5-point spread, but there’s reason to believe they’ll be better on Monday.
The USA is a team that is not going to lose unless they beat themselves. Edwards in particular is not likely to play so poorly again to start on Monday and even if I’m not expecting much from Ingram, this team has a ton of firepower. They learned firsthand through a difficult opening quarter against the Kiwis that if they don’t put their best foot forward, any team can hang with them.
The total for Monday’s tilt has come in at 178.5, which seems a touch on the low side to me. I remain confident that Team USA’s offense is going to be much better than it was in their first tournament game, but I also think Greece has a pathway to success there as well.
The Greek team doesn’t have Giannis but they do have a bevy of bigs, including former NBA player Georgios Papagiannis who could prove troublesome for this undersized American team. They don’t have to have an amazing first-shot offense if they can put pressure on the offensive boards and if Jaren Jackson Jr. once again should find himself in foul trouble, things could open up for their drive and kick game.
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Greece vs USA game info
| Location: | Mall of Asia Arena, Manila, PH |
| Date: | Monday, August 28, 2023 |
| Time: | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Greece vs USA key injuries
Greece: None.
USA: None.
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