After a blistering start to the PGA Championship, Round 2 figures to be survival of the fittest with rain and wind in the forecast. Our Round 2 PGA picks will benefit from that as we look to fade two guys who played over their heads in Round 1.
We witnessed some history in Round 1 of the 2024 PGA Championship as Xander Schauffele shot a 62 (-9), a new course record at Valhalla. He holds a three-stroke lead over the rest of the field.
Subsequently, Schauffele is the current +240 favorite per PGA Championship odds. Now, we turn our attention to Saturday’s Round 2 of the PGA Championship.
Below, I break down the action and bring you my Round 2 PGA Championship picks.
Best PGA Championship Round 2 picks
Scottie Scheffler — Outright win (+400)
I mentioned in the introduction that Schauffele set the course record with a 62 on Thursday. In fact, it is just the fourth time in Tour history that a golfer shot a 62 in any major championship round.
Branden Grace did it in the third round of the 2017 Open Championship, while both Schauffele and Rickie Fowler also shot 62 in the opening round of the 2023 U.S. Open. Yes, that means Schauffele has done so in back-to-back years.
Not even one of those previous three guys went on to win that major championship, and I think Schauffele will fall short once again in back-to-back years.
Schauffele is undoubtedly one of the best golfers in the world, but he seemingly always fades down the stretch and finds ways to lose tournaments despite leading in the beginning.
We just saw it last week at the Wells Fargo Championship, and this is the reason he has failed to win on Tour in nearly two years. Schauffele has also never won a major championship.
On the other hand, Scottie Scheffler has won four of his past five tournaments, including the Masters. This guy knows how to win, and if Schauffele once again folds down the stretch, then that should pave the way for Scottie over the next three rounds as he possesses the second-best odds to win the event.
Pick: Scottie Scheffler — outright win (+400 at FanDuel)
Sahith Theegala – Round 2 Over 70.5 Strokes (+110)
Round 2 should present a tremendous opportunity to fade the entire field. If there is anything the PGA Tour or managers of Valhalla hate, it is exactly what happened on Thursday with low scores across the board in the opening round of a major championship.
Schauffele made a bit of a mockery of the course, but there were plenty of other low scores as well. Therefore, I suspect that we are going to get some incredibly tough pin positions on Friday as the Tour/Valhalla will try to bring the scoring back down to Major Championship level.
That does not bode well for Sahith Theegala, who should be a prime regression candidate regardless of how much tougher they attempt to make the course on Friday. Theegala shot a 65 (-6) on Thursday, but he relied on unsustainable putting and scrambling to keep his score afloat.
He was not striking the ball well, ranking 86th among the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 72nd in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green, 101st in Driving Accuracy, and 80th in Driving Distance. Theegala got away with these rankings because of some miraculous up-and-downs, something that is unlikely to occur in back-to-back rounds.
Pick: Sahith Theegala – Round 2 Over 70.5 Strokes (+110 at FanDuel)
Brian Harman – Round 2 Over 70.5 Strokes (+105)
The other guy to fade in Round 2 is Brian Harman, who shot a 72 (+1) in the opening round. Regression is highly unlikely for Harman, given that he profiles similarly to Theegala in the sense that the ability to scramble kept his score afloat.
Among the field, Harman ranks 18th in scrambling percentage. However, he also ranks 85th or lower in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Strokes Gained:
Approach the Green, Strokes Gained: Putting, Driving Accuracy and Driving Distance. When you add that they are likely to make tough pin placements on Friday to bring those scores back down, I don’t see how he could shoot 70 or lower unless his putter goes nuclear.
Which, for Harman, is possible, but unlikely.
Pick: Brian Harman – Round 2 Over 70.5 Strokes (+105 at FanDuel)
Latest PGA Championship odds
- Xander Schauffele: +250
- Scottie Scheffler: +400
- Rory McIlroy: +500
- Brooks Koepka: +1,400
- Collin Morikawa: +1,400
- Sahith Theegala: +2,000
- Tony Finau: +2,200
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
