Bryce Miller’s efficiency, paired with his short leash, will make it hard for the Astros to do any serious damage to the Mariners’ hurler.
Angles, edges, scams, call them what you want. If you’re betting on pitcher props early, there are always a handful if you dig into the matchups.
With this article, I highlight the best pitcher angles to look into for that day’s slate and how to apply said information to the many pitcher prop markets at your disposal. You might not come to the same conclusion as I do with the bet, but the data is the most important part.
Let’s scan some MLB player props and starting pitcher angles for Monday, September 23.
Josh’s best starting pitcher edges: September 23
Miller u5.5 hits allowed (-115)
Rodriguez u1.5 walks allowed (+150)
Today’s best SP angles
Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros
The angle: Bryce Miller is coming off a season-high 106 pitches.
Bryce Miller was averaging 89 pitches per starts over his last 10 games before last week’s 106-pitch performance vs. the Yankees. This is already a pitcher who’s thrown 40 more innings over his career high, and there’s a good chance his leash is shorter tonight.
Miller is paying even money for Under 17.5 outs today vs. the Astros, but his Under hits market might be the better bet.
The Seattle hurler has been elite of late, allowing fewer than six hits in eight straight starts with a 1.54 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP over that stretch. His efficiency is why I’d prefer the Under 5.5 hits at -115 over the Under 17.5 outs at even money.
Miller could throw 90 pitches today, but he’s gone 18 outs on 90 or fewer pitches in five of his last 10 starts. Seattle is still looking for a playoff spot, so I think the form is the more bankable thing to bet on, while the shorter pitch count only helps his Unders.
The move: Bryce Miller Under 5.5 hits allowed (-115 at bet365)
San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks
The angle: Eduardo Rodriguez looks in better form and has a great walk matchup.
The Giants walk at one of the lowest rates in baseball over the last 30 days and Eduardo Rodriguez is paying +150 for one or fewer walks today.
The Arizona starter doesn’t have a 100-pitch leash and has a 143 walks over his last 442 innings across his last four seasons — Under two walks per six frames. He’s gone 18 outs just once in his eight starts this year and that was last week where he walked one batter over 19 outs.
It’s a big price for what projects around a coinflip with a projection of 1.63 walks, and it’s tough to pass up this price on a short board. If you’re looking for a real sweat, hit opposing starter, Hayden Birdsong, for Under 2.5 walks at the same price.
The move: Eduardo Rodriguez Under 1.5 walks allowed (+150 at bet365)
Not intended for use in MA.
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