The Liberty have looked much better than the Aces in 2024, and while we expect them to handle this matchup for the third time this season, our WNBA picks are actually eyeing the Under with our best bet.
The Las Vegas Aces will put a four-game winning streak on the line when they visit the New York Liberty at Barclays Center. The Liberty are closing in on clinching the top seed in the WNBA playoffs, while the Aces should host a first-round series as they continue their quest for a three-peat.
My Aces vs. Liberty predictions and WNBA picks are looking at the total, however, with a playoff intensity expected on Sunday afternoon.
Aces vs Liberty predictions
My best bet
Under 167.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The two teams who met in last year’s WNBA Finals have taken somewhat different paths in 2024. While the New York Liberty once again look like a superteam and sit atop the league standings, the Las Vegas Aces have already doubled their loss total from 2023 and look far more vulnerable than at any time during their two title runs.
Las Vegas has remained an offensive powerhouse all season long but struggled a bit on the defensive end early in the year. The Aces still rank just fifth in defensive rating (100.1), but the situation has gotten far better as of late. Las Vegas has held six of its last seven opponents to fewer than 80 points, allowing only 75.4 ppg over that stretch.
On the other hand, the Liberty have been shutting down opponents all season long. They rank second in defensive rating (94.8), third in opponent field goal percentage (42.4%), and second in points allowed per game (76.2).
And while New York sometimes lets its defense slide against inferior opposition — see the 94 points they allowed in a loss to the Sparks on August 28 — the Liberty often take their main rivals seriously, locking down the best opposition the WNBA has to offer.
That has played out in their meetings with the Aces this year. New York has won both of those games, allowing an average of just 74.5 ppg in the process. Both of those games hit the Under, too.
The WNBA odds have adjusted to this by bringing down the total for Sunday’s game. However, I still think the number is a bit high for this matchup.
Both teams are playing well defensively now, neither regularly plays in the kinds of shootouts that would incline me towards the Over, and with the playoffs around the corner, I expect both sides to take this game seriously and play hard on the defensive end.
Aces vs Liberty same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 167.5
Liberty -4
A’ja Wilson Under 26.5 points
The Under is the play based on what we’ve seen between these teams lately, and I’m going to ride a couple of other trends in my SGP.
That starts with taking the Liberty to cover the modest 4-point spread. New York has won both games between these teams this season by at least eight points and has performed well as a small favorite — in contrast to its struggles as a double-digit favorite against weaker opponents.
I’ll also take Aces star A’ja Wilson to stay Under 26.5 points this afternoon. Wilson is having another brilliant season and it’s hardly like she’s been bad against the Liberty. However, she scored 21 and 24 points in the first two meetings this season, and while she’ll still be the best player on the court, New York can contain her better than most of the league.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Aces vs Liberty odds
Aces vs Liberty live odds
Get the latest Aces vs. Liberty WNBA odds for tonight.
Aces vs Liberty opening odds
- Spread: Las Vegas +4 | New York -4
- Moneyline: Las Vegas +150 | New York -150
- Over/Under: Over 167.5 | Under 167.5
Aces vs Liberty spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Liberty have gone 12-14 against the spread this season, while the Aces are 10-14 ATS on the year.
- Las Vegas has covered in four straight games, with New York going 2-4 ATS over its last six contests.
- The Over has the edge when each of these teams plays, going 13-11 when the Aces take the court and 14-12 in the Liberty’s games.
- New York is averaging a total of 161.8 points per game, with Las Vegas playing to an average total of 168.8 points.
Aces vs Liberty trend
The Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the Aces and the Liberty. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Liberty.
Aces vs Liberty game info
| Location: | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY |
| Date: | Sunday, 9-8-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Sun vs Sparks latest injuries
Aces: No key injuries to report.
Liberty: No key injuries to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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