Oklahoma vs. Mississippi Under 26.5 1H
Best odds: -115 at FanDuel
Welcome to my SEC First-Half Under of the Week!
Yes. This is a bit now. But we’re only calling it a bit because targeting first-half Unders in certain SEC matchups has been profitable, especially when the Oklahoma Sooners are involved.
The Sooners offense is a dumpster fire. They have scored 16 points or fewer four times this season and three times in four SEC matchups, and enter this game against the Mississippi Rebels ranked 126th in offensive success rate.
The mess cost offensive coordinator Seth Littrell his job and now Brent Venables has made a switch back to Jackson Arnold at quarterback. And what’s the old saying? If you have two quarterbacks, you don’t have one.
The Rebels have issues of their own and now their College Football Playoff lives hang in the balance following a second loss. But one of those issues isn’t their defense.
Mississippi’s defense has been awesome. In fact, the Rebels rank first in the country in defensive success rate and sixth in opponent EPA/play.
The problem is that Jaxson Dart and the Mississippi offense has gone missing for large chunks in two of the last three games. Unsurprisingly, they lost both. To make matters worse, the Rebels will be without not only their best wide-out, but one of the best wide-outs in the country in Tre Harris.
That means we should get a heathy dose of running back Henry Parrish in this one. But it will be tough sledding for the Mississippi back, because while the Sooners stink at scoring, that defense is starting to look like one of the Venables units we were used to when he was the DC at Clemson.
Oklahoma ranks 22nd in the nation in defensive success rate and are 13th in opponent EPA/play. The Sooners do a great job of clogging up running lanes and with no Harris in the passing attack, Dart could struggle moving the ball as well.
So, yeah. It’s a bit. But it’s a good bit whenever Oklahoma is involved.
Justice Ellison Over 57.5 rushing yards
Best odds: -115 at bet365
The Indiana Hoosiers dream season has hit a bump in the road as quarterback Kurtis Rourke injured his thumb in last week’s beatdown against Nebraska. The injury required surgery, but the prognosis is pretty good considering.
That said, Rourke certainly won’t be on the field when the Hoosiers host the Washington Huskies on Saturday for a noon ET kickoff. I did give out the Under in this matchup in this week’s edition of College Football 134 podcast (please go listen/like/subscribe) but I don’t want to overexpose myself on that market.
You can lean on whatever “teams traveling across several time zones stat” you want, but I don’t much care for those stats. What I do care about is the fact that Washington’s run defense has been suspect. And while Rourke has been the engine that makes this Hoosiers offense go, they have been running the ball really well too.
Indiana has a dynamic duo in the backfield with Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton. Ellison and Lawton have 73 and 76 carries, respectively, for a combined 907 yards and are both going for over five yards per carry. As a result, the Hoosier rank sixth in rush success rate and eighth in EPA/rush.
They should both keep rumbling in this matchup against the Huskies. Washington enters this game ranked 62nd in defensive success rate vs. the rush and 52nd in EPA/rush.
I can see both Ellison and Lawson going Over their rushing prop in this one, but I’m siding with Ellison. Not only has he been the “1” to Lawton’s “1A” (a lot of Lawton’s carries have come in blowouts when games have already been decided), but he’s the more explosive of the two backs.
Ellison has totaled 514 yards at 7.0 yards per carry this season. His rushing prop can be found at 57.5, a number he has eclipsed in five of Indiana’s seven games.
And I’m not worried about the Washington Huskies being able to shut down the running game since Indiana’s offense will be a little more one dimensional without Rourke. The Huskies just gave up 174 yards and 220 yards in consecutive games against Michigan and Iowa, two of the most one-dimensional offenses in the country.
Give me the Over on Ellison’s rushing yards.
Kansas vs. Kansas State Over 55.5
Best odds: -110 at BetMGM
The Sunflower Showdown between the Kansas Jayhawks and the Kansas State Wildcats is going to be lit this year. There will be fireworks. This will be a shootout. Whatever you want to call it, I’m on the Over on Saturday night.
It’s been a disappointing season for Lance Leipold’s Jayhawks, who enter this rivalry game with a 2-5 record. Yet, Leipold is saying all the right things, that his team hasn’t given up on the season and that they could still get to a bowl if they go on a run late.
Well, that run has to start now. The good news is that it looks like Rock Chalk has found something on offense over the last month.
Kansas is averaging 32 points per game over its last four games. Jalon Daniels has been better during that period, throwing for 870 yards, seven touchdowns, and more importantly, just two interceptions. Running back Devin Neal continues to rumble all over opponents, topping 100 yards rushing in five of seven games this season.
If the Jayhawks offensive line can do a decent job of slowing down the Kansas State pass rush, you can throw on the Wildcats a bit. They have allowed QBs to throw for 340 or more yards three times over the last six games.
But the Jayhawks aren’t the only ones to unlock something on offense recently. Kansas State QB Avery Johnson is arguably coming off his best game, throwing for 298 yards with three touchdowns and no picks in a beatdown of West Virginia.
The Wildcats have now scored 31 or more points in all but one of their seven games and enter this contest ranked 19th in offensive success rate and 11th in EPA/play.
And while Kansas has seen an uptick in its offense, the defense is still a work in progress and ranks 98th in success rate, surrendering 32 or more points in four straight games. The Over is 4-0 in those games and 3-0 in K-State’s last three. That trend continues on Saturday night.
