Politico got its hands on a memo from the Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC allied with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Somehow the memo contains some of the best polling for Democrats we’ve seen in ages.
The polls in the memo include numbers for the top-of-the-ticket matchup between Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump as well as, per the organization’s focus, each included state’s Senate race. All poll numbers are for “October,” with no exact dates specified.
Somewhat contrary to popular belief, internal campaign polling is often among the best in the business. Campaigns and committees are spending tens and hundreds of millions of dollars based on what these numbers tell you. This memo doesn’t appear to have been meant for public consumption but rather to drive the organization’s decision-making and fundraising efforts.
Arizona
Democrat Ruben Gallego: 47 %
Republican Kari Lake: 42%
Harris: 47%
Trump: 47%
According to SLF’s memo, Gallego had a 3-percentage-point lead in August but has grown that to 5 points in two months. Notably, Lake’s share in the poll has dropped 5 points since August, while Gallego’s share has dropped 3 points, suggesting that Arizonans are generally less happy with the Republican option as the election grows nearer.
Maryland
Democrat Angela Alsobrooks: 48%
Republican Larry Hogan: 41%
Harris: 61%
Trump: 32%
SLF’s polling apparently showed Hogan, the popular former governor of the state, ahead by 8 points in early September, only to fall to a 7-point deficit by mid-September. That is so preposterous I almost think it must be a typo. SLF claims that if the candidates can be separated from their party affiliations, “Hogan has a decent chance to win,” which is hilarious given that he’s at 41% in an indigo-blue state. I doubt this race was ever competitive.
Michigan
Democrat Elissa Slotkin: 46%
Republican Mike Rogers: 38%
Harris: 45%
Trump: 42%
Trump at 42% in MIchigan? Let’s hope! Slotkin 8 points up in the Senate race? That would make the race far less competitive than the public polling indicates. “The climb in Mike Rogers’ unfavorable numbers and his drop on the ballot are a textbook case of what happens when a candidate isn’t on the air to shape his image and deflect attacks,” SLF laments.
Montana
Democrat Jon Tester: 44%
Republican Tim Sheehy: 48%
Harris: 40%
Trump: 57%
Oof, this poll doesn’t add to the mounting evidence of Tester’s challenges, but ironically, him being 4 points underwater is pretty good given some of the public polling—The New York Times/Siena College’s latest poll showed Sheehy up 8 points—and could be within the margin of turnout.
The problem, of course, is that those presidential numbers look spot on, the exact same as the 2020 election results there. So Tester needs both a dramatic Senate undervote among Trump voters, as well as a lot of Trump voters to split their tickets and vote for him instead of Sheehy (a phenomenon that is increasingly rare).
“Our relentless two-track media strategy (SLF and [Republican super PAC] American Crossroads) is starting to lock in a durable lead for Tim Sheehy over two-term juggernaut Jon Tester,” reads the SLF memo. “Tester and Schumer are still pouring millions into the race, hoping to rehabilitate Tester’s image and tear down Sheehy. That means it’s too early to declare victory and shift resources elsewhere.”
This one isn’t as over as many people seem to believe. And Republicans probably aren’t taking control of the Senate without Montana.
Nevada
Democrat Jacky Rosen: 43%
Republican Sam Brown: 36%
Harris: 46%
Trump: 46%
The presidential numbers are roughly what the polling averages show, which make those Senate numbers really, really weird. In August, their polling showed Rosen getting 47% to Brown’s 42%, so according to them, Nevada voters increasingly dislike both candidates.
“Despite Jacky Rosen’s worsening image and weakness on the ballot, Sam Brown has struggled to close the gap in this race, largely due to nonstop ads savaging him on abortion,” SLF notes. “The dead-heat presidential race suggests Nevada is up for grabs, but this is also a state where Democrats have vastly superior organization on the ground—and that can deliver a couple extra points in a close race.”
That is a surprisingly frank and accurate assessment, given that the Culinary Workers Union in Nevada is likely the most effective get-out-the-vote operation in the entire country. It’s also nice seeing Republicans admit how challenging abortion has become for their candidates.
Nebraska
The SLF memo included no polling on this race, but they are now aware it exists. “Nebraska has emerged as a serious trouble-spot as polls show Sen. Deb Fischer in a tight race with Dan Osborn, an Independent in the mold of Bernie Sanders,” SLF writes. “We are now polling to assess whether intervention is necessary to protect the seat.”
In late September, I wrote more about this fascinating opportunity for Democrats.
Ohio
Democrat Sherrod Brown: 45%
Republican Bernie Moreno: 39%
Harris: 43%
Trump: 47%
Trump only up 4 points in Ohio? He won it by 8 points in 2020, and this lends credence to the theory of a 3- to 4-point leftward drift in some Midwestern states. We’ve seen that in polling in Iowa, including competitiveness in two of its Republican-held House seats, as well as in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio.
In the presidential race, we won’t win Ohio absent a massive Trump collapse, but the closer the race, the better for Brown, who would then have to depend on fewer undervotes and split tickets to pull off the win. Moreno at 39% is catastrophic for the GOP, and the SLF seems ready to throw in the towel: “This week’s results may be a tad pessimistic, but Moreno has to close the sale.”
Pennsylvania
Democrat Bob Casey: 48%
Republican Dave McCormick: 46%
Harris: 49%
Trump: 48%
There have been few warning signs about this Senate race, particularly given how hapless the out-of-state McCormick is. But I don’t find it hard to believe that the fate of the Senate contest is closely correlated to the top of the ticket. And here, the SLF’s polling mirrors Harris’ 1-point advantage in 538’s polling average.
“McCormick still needs to close the gap with Trump on the ballot, and Trump needs to win,” notes SLF, and they’re right.
Texas
Democrat Colin Allred: 47%
Republican Ted Cruz: 48%
Harris: 45%
Trump: 50%
HOLY SHIT, GUYS. HOLY SHIT.
“Beginning in early August, Colin Allred has been heavily outspending Ted Cruz on TV, closing up the multicandidate ballot to a single point,” writes SLF. “GOP outside groups (including a dedicated Cruz super PAC) joined the fray in late September and narrowed Allred’s spending advantage.”
SLF’s polling in mid-September had Cruz ahead 47% to Allred’s 44%, so whatever spending Republicans have made in Texas, they haven’t arrested Allred’s gains.
Even Trump being up 5 points in the presidential race isn’t anything for Republicans to brag about, given that they won the state by about 6 points in 2020. The tighter the top of the ticket, the easier it’ll be for Allred to cross into winning territory.
Wisconsin
Democrat Tammy Baldwin: 46%
Republican Eric Hovde: 45%
Harris: 45%
Trump: 46%
“As we enter the final month, Tammy Baldwin’s negatives are higher than Hovde’s and the ballot has closed to a statistical dead-heat,” writes SFL. “With Trump edging ahead and a generic Senate ballot that shows room for further growth, this race has become a top priority for SLF.”
Public polling has also shown a tight race in what was one of the tightest states in 2020. These numbers are certainly believable, putting the race within the margin of turnout.
Florida
Oops, nothing from Florida. Wanna know why?
Despite that Republican Sen. Rick Scott doesn’t hold a big lead in his Senate race, this super PAC is allied with McConnell, and Scott challenged McConnell for their caucus’ Senate leadership position in 2022, and despite plans to retire, McConnell continues to nurse that grudge nicely.
