Prop bet #1: Walker Buehler Under 2.5 earned runs allowed
Walker Buehler did not have the greatest season after returning from Tommy John, going 1-6 in 16 starts with a disappointing 5.38 ERA. That’s a far cry from the pitcher he’s been in the past, especially in the playoffs. There was a time when he was a star for the Los Angeles Dodgers in October baseball.
However, that’s what we’re going to focus on — how Buehler pitches in the postseason, especially against the San Diego Padres. In the playoffs, he owns a career 2.94 ERA, and against the Padres, he has a 6-1 record and 1.80 career ERA lifetime in 75 innings.
Sure, you can look at his sub-4.00 ERA against the Padres this season, but I’m more focused on his past. Buehler threw the baseball quite well in the month of September and his last start of the campaign was at home against this lineup, surrendering just one run in five innings on five hits.
Buehler will keep the Padres hitters at bay and stay Under this number in the process.
Prop bet #2: Michael King Under 4.5 hits allowed
Michael King was fantastic for San Diego all year after coming over in the Juan Soto trade. He made 30 starts, posting a 13-9 record and 2.95 ERA, serving as one of the team’s most consistent arms. He also struck out 201 hitters in 173 2/3 frames while walking 61.
The right-hander already shined in his first postseason outing for the Padres, tossing seven scoreless in the Wild Card Round and striking out 12 Braves batters. While he’s only pitched nine career playoff innings, King has yet to allow a run and only five hits.
On top of that, the former Yankees hurler collected a 3.10 ERA against the Dodgers this season in four appearances and three starts. In the last two, he stayed Under this number as well, allowing only three hits on September 24 and just two back in May.
Yes, this is a difficult lineup to deal with, but King has been dominant.
Prop bet #3: Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 hits
This feels like a no-brainer, doesn’t it? Fernando Tatis Jr. is tearing the cover off the baseball in these playoffs, slashing a mind-boggling .643 in four games with three home runs, two doubles, and five RBI. He also hasn’t struck out once.
The slugger was 2-for-4 in the series opener before going 3-for-4 with two long balls in the 10-2 win in Game 2. He’s really flourishing right now and clearly has a lot of confidence every time he steps up to the plate.
To make this bet even more enticing, Tatis Jr. is hitting .310 lifetime against Buehler (9-for-29) with four homers and five RBI. Between his hot bat and his history against the Dodgers right-hander, banging out a couple of hits at the very minimum is not too much to ask. The+180 price is just the cherry on top.
