Rebel Stakes Handicapping Picks
Horse racing gamblers are you looking for 2024 Rebel Stakes Free Pick & Handicapping Odds…plus some predictions? Need some advice on who to take? The 2024 (G2) Rebel is set for February 24 at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, AR. Here’s a preview of our top contenders.
Rebel Stakes Preview
- Race: Rebel Stakes
- Purse: $1.25 million
- Track: Oaklawn Park
- Date: February 24
- Post Time: 6:23 PM (ET)
- Live: Rebel Stakes Odds: Click Here
Before we can give you our expert 2024 Rebel Stakes free pick, we have to break down the entries! In fact, we’d love to hear from you after you’ve given this post a read to see if you see an angle that we don’t!
2024 Rebel Stakes Handicapping
A whole lot of purse money and a spot in the 2024 Kentucky Derby are up for grabs on Saturday afternoon at Oaklawn Park for the 13 runners in the (G2) Rebel Stakes.
The Rebel will award Derby qualifying points on a 50-25-15-10-5 scale, and those 50 for first place will likely be enough for the winner to seal his spot in the Derby starting gate.
The field includes one strong favourite that happens to be the only entry with a previous graded-stakes win to his name, and a handful of others that were last seen battling each other the (G3) Southwest Stakes just three weeks ago.
Odds listed her are provided by the Fair Grounds track oddsmaker.
2024 Rebel Stakes Free Pick & Handicapping: Timberlake Race Odds: 6-5
After breaking his maiden by more than nine lengths in a very tough group last July at Ellis Park, Timberlake stepped up to the graded-stakes ranks and ran second in the (G1) Hopeful. He followed that up with a solid 4 1/4 length win over a sloppy Aqueduct track in the (G1) Champagne Stakes.
Next came the (G1) Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, where he was a no-factor fourth, finishing more than eight lengths behind the winner. He’ll be making his first start since that race in November.
2024 Rebel Stakes Free Pick & Handicapping: Northern Flame Race Odds: 5-1
A last out wire-to-wire winner at Oaklawn in a one-mile optional claiming event, Northern Flame’s racing career has been inconsistent at best, with a few good races and a few real clunkers.
He ran well enough to score a career best 90 Brisnet speed figure last October the (G1) Breeders’ Futurity when finishing fourth, but then dropped almost 40 points and was far out-distanced in his next race over a sloppy track in the (G3) Street Sense Stakes. He then stumbled out of the gate and was second last at the start of his next, taking him completely out of his element which is forward speed.
Mena Race Odds: 15-1
Toss his effort two back on the all weather track at Turfway Park, and Mena has run three good races in a row, with a pair of wins and second-place showing last out when he couldn’t quite get to Northern Flame going 1 mile at Oaklawn and was beaten just a neck.
Now he gets to stretch out in distance a bit which could prove to be very beneficial.
Carbone Race Odds: 15-1
After winning his career debut by eight lengths and then closing out 2023 with a four-length win, Carbone was bet down to be the favourite in the Southwest, but he faded badly through the stretch and wound up seventh.
That was over a muddy Oaklawn track, and he should get a dry and fast surface on Saturday to work with and try to regain the form he showed in his first two races.
Here’s My 2024 Rebel Stakes Free Pick.
While I don’t believe speed figures are the be-all-and-end-all in handicapping, sometimes the numbers don’t lie, and in that regard Timberlake is the class of this field. Not only is he the only horse in the field to hit triple-digits in the Brisnet figures, he’s done it twice, back-to back in his last two races.
Competition-wise he’s also faced he toughest fields of all the horses here, and this race could actually be regarded as a step down in class from his last three starts. You could question whether he’ll be fully cranked up for this after the four month layoff, but with all the other factors he’s the one to beat, and I’ll pick him for the win.
Given that he’ll likely be at even lower odds than the morning line come race time, I’ll try to get some value in the exacta by using both the stalking-type Mena and the front-running Carbone in the second spot.
Full Field: 2024 Rebel Stakes Odds
By post position
- #1 – Carbone 15-1
- #2 – Northern Flame 5-1
- #3 – Common Defence 30-1
- #4 – Tejon Pass 30-1
- #5 – Magic Grant 50-1
- #6 – Dimatic 8-1
- #7 – Timberlake 6-5
- #8 – Next Level 30-1
- #9 – Lagynos 20-1
- #10 – Mena 15-1
- #11 – Just Steel 7-2
- #12 – Woodcourt 20-1
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