Prop bet #1: Huskies win early
Michigan has a quality offense, make no mistake about that. But it isn’t one designed to come from behind against a high-caliber offense like Washington’s.
Huskies head coach Kalen DeBoer knows that. His opening script may matter more on Monday than in any game in his 27-year coaching career.
Betting on Washington to score on its first drive is simply a bet on its offense in general, given it knows an early lead will put the Wolverines in trouble.
Michigan has not faced a passing offense like this one this year; there may not be another one in the country, though that praise risks giving DeBoer and star quarterback Michael Penix Jr. too much credit. When it comes to the numbers, we may not even understand how good Washington is. Penix appeared injured or slowed in some manner through the season’s second half, only returning to his best look in the Sugar Bowl after a month off.
There is no genuine reason to doubt the Huskies’ offense, not even against the Wolverines’ excellent defense, and given the importance of changing Michigan’s offensive comfort level, counting on Washington early should bring value.
Washington team prop: First drive touchdown (+190 at DraftKings) Profit boost available
Prop bet #2: Corum, always Corum
The odds on a prop bet of Blake Corum scoring all of Michigan’s touchdowns would be high, but that thought alone would be one worth chasing. That prop does not exist, so let’s instead rely on Corum out of the gates.
Of Michigan’s 14 offensive touchdowns in its last five games, 10 of them came with the ball in Corum’s hands. The 5-foot-8 ball carrier has become the engine of the offense, even if it is directed by an increasingly impressive quarterback in J.J. McCarthy.
Washington’s defense is weakest against the rush. To be fair, that is in part because opposing offenses have so needed to throw the ball to keep up with Penix and the Huskies, they only rush when they have an edge.
Yet, beyond those game-state tendencies, opponents enjoyed successful rushes on 48.7 percent of their attempts against Washington, putting the Huskies rush defense in the bottom 10 in the country.
When Michigan finds itself near the end zone on Monday night, it will have both its own recent results and a porous Washington front seven encouraging a handoff to Corum.
Michigan team prop: First Michigan touchdown scorer — Blake Corum (+160 at DraftKings) Profit boost available
Prop bet #3: Converting their chances
Betting against Michigan’s points on Monday would be effectively a bet against the Wolverines finishing drives.
Michigan has averaged 26.2 points in its last five games, all against defenses better than Washington’s, and that is not counting the overtime touchdown against Alabama in the Rose Bowl.
In the last three games, and let’s realize those were against Ohio State, Iowa, and Alabama, the Wolverines have scored touchdowns on nine of their 16 quality drives, managing scoring opportunities on half of their possessions.
Those three defenses rank No. 2, No. 9, and No. 17 in the frequency of allowing scoring opportunities, respectively, and No. 24, No. 2, and No. 39 in points allowed on those chances, per cfb-graphs.com. To get into the end zone on 56 percent of those quality drives was a testament to Michigan’s offense, as was managing scoring opportunities on half of those possessions.
The Huskies’ defense is not terrible; Washington would not be 14-0 if it was. But it does struggle where it matters most, allowing 3.92 points per quality drive, ranking No. 104 in the country.
The Wolverines will have chances to score, and they are likely to convert them against the purple defense.
Doing so will be paramount to keeping up with Penix.
Michigan team prop: Over 3.5 touchdowns (-150 at DraftKings) Profit boost available
