Josh Allen Odds & Props

Josh Allen MNF prop pick

Over 267.5 passing yards (-113)

There are two narratives that might pull you away from this prop bet for Monday Night Football. First, there’s the idea that Josh Allen hasn’t been performing up to the standards we expect of him and that has been dragging down the Buffalo Bills offense. Secondly, there’s the idea that the Denver Broncos have turned their season around since allowing the Miami Dolphins to put up 70 points on them back in late September.

While both stories have a kernel of truth, they obscure larger realities. Allen is making too many mistakes, and taking unnecessary risks that have resulted in turnovers. However, the Bills are still one of the NFL’s top-performing offenses, ranking third in yards per play, fifth in total points, and fifth in yards per passing attempt.

Denver’s defense has looked improved over the last three weeks, allowing just 15 points per game during that span — even though it played the Kansas City Chiefs twice in that period. However, this is still the same team that allowed the Dolphins to score 70, let Justin Fields torch them for four touchdown passes, and gave up 31 points to the New York Jets — a team that has scored one offensive touchdown in the last three weeks.

The Broncos are dead last in the NFL when it comes to yards per play allowed, as well as yards per passing attempt. Denver has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 73.6{dec8eed80f8408bfe0c8cb968907362b371b4140b1eb4f4e531a2b1c1a9556e5} of passes and put up an overall passer rating of 104.2, both of which also rank 32nd of 32 teams. 

The question to ask is whether we are going to look at some short-term trends or believe what we know over a larger sample. The latter is almost always the smarter play, and that’s what I’m doing tonight. 

We have years of data to show us that Allen can push the ball down the field, particularly against weaker secondaries. The Broncos do have one capable corner in Pat Surtain, but he’s no match for Stefon Diggs, and the matchups only get worse for Denver from there. 

Allen is Pro Football Focus’ top-rated quarterback this year, and regardless of whether that’s underrating the mistakes he’s made, it’s clear Allen is still making plays. He’ll have plenty of opportunities to do so again against Denver, and that’s why I’m taking the Over on his yardage prop.

Prop: Josh Allen Over 267.5 passing yards (-113 at FanDuel)

Josh Allen MNF same-game parlay

Josh Allen Over 267.5 passing yards

Bills -7

Stefon Diggs anytime TD

I think there’s a clear path to building an SGP for tonight’s game, beginning with our pick for Allen to hit the Over on his yardage total. 

From there, let’s also take the Bills to cover the spread. Again, this is a pick that is considering what we know about these teams all season long (and beyond), rather than overreacting to what we’ve seen over the past few weeks. 

Buffalo is clearly the better team. There’s also an absolute matchup nightmare for the Broncos, as they simply don’t have the talent on the defensive end to stop a Bills offense that can pile on the points, as they have against better teams like Miami and the Washington Commanders earlier this year. This game is also in Buffalo, which should push us even further toward the Bills. We only have to give a touchdown here, and there’s no reason this game should be anywhere near that close.

I’m also predicting a touchdown for Diggs. Whenever the Bills passing attack is clicking, Allen likes to take deep shots. When he does, Digs is the obvious beneficiary, scoring in four of his last six games with seven total touchdowns on the season. Diggs should find the end zone at home against a Broncos secondary he can run circles around on Monday Night Football.

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