- Military strategists say that Prigozhin’s mutiny may be the beginning of the end of Putin’s reign.
- Retired major general Mick Ryan told Insider Yevgeny Prigozhin’s days are also likely numbered.
- Ryan said the uprising against the Russian military will have consequences for the war in Ukraine.
Though Yevgeny Prigozhin didn’t seize control in his attempted uprising against the Russian military, the mutiny undermining Vladimir Putin’s power may spell the beginning of the end for the Russian leader.
Mick Ryan, a retired major general in the Australian military and fellow for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Insider that Prigozhin’s mutiny would have “short, medium, and longer-term impacts” on the war in Ukraine, as well as the stability of Russia into the future.
“Putin’s authority has been challenged openly and he hasn’t come out looking very good,” Ryan said, suggesting waning confidence in the Russian leader may decrease the morale of invading Russian troops and be used by Ukrainians to exploit internal weaknesses that arise due to the infighting.
While Putin’s next steps remain unknown, Ryan said, “somewhere down the track when we look at the fall of Putin, this was where it began,” echoing analysis by political scientist Mark Galeotti, who wrote in an essay for The Times of London that the endgame for Putin has started.
“Putin may be talking tough now, but it was his failure to act in a timely way to control Prigozhin (or remove Shoigu and Gerasimov) that has led to this crisis,” Galeotti wrote. “Putin seems likely to defuse or defeat this specific challenge, but will still take what may in the long term prove to be a mortal wound.”
Prigozhin, despite being exiled to Belarus after staging the coup, isn’t likely long for this world, either, Ryan added.
“Putin is a fairly vindictive individual. My sense is Prigozhin probably shouldn’t be booking accommodation in a retirement home, you know,” Ryan told Insider. “I think his days — on the balance of probabilities — are probably limited.”
