LSU vs Iowa Predictions, Odds & Picks

The Iowa Hawkeyes and superstar Caitlin Clark are favorites to win the Women’s NCAA Tournament after stunning undefeated South Carolina as 12-point underdogs in the Final Four and setting up tonight’s National Championship Game against the LSU Tigers.

Iowa “picked their poison” when it came to stopping South Carolina’s offense, plugging up the middle and begging the Gamecocks to make shots from outside. That same defensive strategy may not fly against Louisiana State, which thrives in transition and generates its offense from defense.

I run down the Women’s March Madness odds for the NCAA Women’s National Title Game, and give my best college basketball picks and predictions for LSU vs. Iowa on April 2.

LSU vs Iowa odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel on April 2, 2023.

LSU vs Iowa picks and predictions

The best thing the Iowa Hawkeyes can do to beat the LSU Tigers is something they’ve done all season: get buckets. I don’t just mean score more points than Louisiana State (duh), I mean take and make high percentage shots.

Iowa has no trouble lighting up the scoreboard, ranked as the top offensive program in the land. The Hawkeyes need to maintain their standing as an efficient offense (No. 1 in EFG{dec8eed80f8408bfe0c8cb968907362b371b4140b1eb4f4e531a2b1c1a9556e5}), which they have for the most part during the NCAA Tournament.

Iowa is hitting at a 52.5{dec8eed80f8408bfe0c8cb968907362b371b4140b1eb4f4e531a2b1c1a9556e5} clip in the big dance, and was an incredible 28-for-57 from the field against South Carolina’s top-ranked defense in the semifinals. That 49{dec8eed80f8408bfe0c8cb968907362b371b4140b1eb4f4e531a2b1c1a9556e5} success rate was just the third time this season the Gamecocks allowed a foe to shoot better than 43{dec8eed80f8408bfe0c8cb968907362b371b4140b1eb4f4e531a2b1c1a9556e5} from the field.

If the Hawkeyes can continue to make shots at a high rate (2-pointers or 3-pointers), they’ll pull the power cord on LSU’s transition attack on Sunday night.

Louisiana State is not a great halfcourt offense, beyond the post presence of Angel Reese. The Tigers have been especially streaky in the tournament, shooting less than 40{dec8eed80f8408bfe0c8cb968907362b371b4140b1eb4f4e531a2b1c1a9556e5} from the floor, as well as a spotty 19.7{dec8eed80f8408bfe0c8cb968907362b371b4140b1eb4f4e531a2b1c1a9556e5} from beyond the arc.

LSU shot 47{dec8eed80f8408bfe0c8cb968907362b371b4140b1eb4f4e531a2b1c1a9556e5} from the floor against Virginia Tech in the Final Four game on Friday, but most of that damage came with easy buckets in transition in the final 15 minutes, and was sparked by the Hokies going ice cold from the floor.

Virginia Tech went 9-for-31 from beyond the arc in the game, and those long rebounds on missed triples was jet fuel for the Tigers’ transition attack. But before that second half surge, the Hokies built a 12-point lead by making shots and then having time to run back and set up a staggering zone that exposed LSU’s troubles playing halfcourt ball.

The Hawkeyes are a much tougher offense to disrupt, and even if Iowa does stumble against a very good Louisiana State defense, Naismith Player of the Year winner Caitlin Clark is a go-to superstar who can generate her own options when the shot clock ticks down. She’s shooting better than 51{dec8eed80f8408bfe0c8cb968907362b371b4140b1eb4f4e531a2b1c1a9556e5} over the past three games.

It’s tough to take anything away from LSU’s defense, which checked its first four tournament foes to less than 44{dec8eed80f8408bfe0c8cb968907362b371b4140b1eb4f4e531a2b1c1a9556e5} shooting before allowing Virginia Tech to shoot better than 47{dec8eed80f8408bfe0c8cb968907362b371b4140b1eb4f4e531a2b1c1a9556e5} on Friday. But it was the Hokies’ off night from beyond the arc that really did them in, more specifically in the fourth quarter, in which VT was outscored 29-13. As for tonight, it’s hard to imagine Clark allowing Iowa to go on extended scoring droughts like that.

On top of that failsafe on offense, Iowa head coach Lisa Bluder mixed in multiple looks on defense this season, including plenty of zone defense. While I don’t suspect the Hawkeyes will be as soft on LSU’s shooters as they were against South Carolina, Iowa has a 2-3 zone that’s proven potent in the first round of the tournament.

The spread is bouncing between Hawkeyes -3.5 and -4, which means a two-possession win for Iowa. I’ll play it a little safer, given the momentum of Kim Mulkey’s squad and LSU’s work on the offensive glass, and take the Hawkeyes outright on the moneyline.

The outright price can be had as low as Iowa -160 (FanDuel) with some shops going as high as -175 on the Hawkeyes. 

My best bet: Iowa moneyline (-160 at FanDuel)

LSU vs Iowa spread analysis

After Iowa’s upset over South Carolina, bookmakers installed the No. 2 Hawkeyes as 1.5-point neutral-court favorites against the No. 3 Tigers in Dallas.

That spread has since climbed as high as Iowa -4 with early play on Clark and the Hawkeyes. BetMGM books are reporting 77{dec8eed80f8408bfe0c8cb968907362b371b4140b1eb4f4e531a2b1c1a9556e5} of ticket count and 76{dec8eed80f8408bfe0c8cb968907362b371b4140b1eb4f4e531a2b1c1a9556e5} of handle on the Hawkeyes to cover the spread.

Iowa, known more for its offensive firepower, rolled out a bold defensive strategy against South Carolina. It opted to clog up the middle of the paint, selling out to neutralizing the Gamecocks’ size advantage, but leaving SC’s shooters with plenty of space on the perimeter.

That worked to start their semifinal game, with South Carolina putting up only 13 points in the opening quarter, and overall the Gamecocks couldn’t take advantage of those open looks, shooting just 39{dec8eed80f8408bfe0c8cb968907362b371b4140b1eb4f4e531a2b1c1a9556e5} from the field. Offensive rebounds helped South Carolina score 24 second-chance points, but it was an otherwise terrible offensive showing from SC, which also had 15 turnovers in the 77-73 loss.

The Hawkeyes’ offense continues to feed off Clark, who took 31 of Iowa’s 47 field goal attempts Friday. That included a 5-for-17 night from beyond the arc, and 41 points from the junior guard. Her efforts have helped the Hawkeyes to cover the spread in their last three tournament games heading into tonight.

Louisiana State is another team that thrives on dominating the offensive glass. The Tigers were somewhat held in check by Virginia Tech in the Final Four on Friday, pulling down only 15 offensive boards for 24 second-chance points. But it was LSU’s defense in the second half that broke the game open and helped them cover as two-point favorites in the 79-72 win.

The Tigers struggled against the Hokies’ big zone defense, which slowed the game down and forced Louisiana State to play a halfcourt set in the first half. But when Virginia Tech came out cold in the fourth quarter, LSU grabbed those long misses and ran a thin VT roster out of the gym in transition.

The Tigers got the rim for easy buckets, and sophomore star Reese was unstoppable on the blocks, scoring 24 points and grabbing 12 rebounds to improve LSU to 2-1 ATS since the Sweet 16. 

LSU vs Iowa Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under for Sunday’s title game opened at 162.5 points and has been trimmed to as low as 160.5 as of Sunday morning. BetMGM books are reporting 84{dec8eed80f8408bfe0c8cb968907362b371b4140b1eb4f4e531a2b1c1a9556e5} of ticket count and 88{dec8eed80f8408bfe0c8cb968907362b371b4140b1eb4f4e531a2b1c1a9556e5} of handle on the Under.

The Hawkeyes are the top-scoring team in the country and have maintained that pace in the NCAA Tournament. Iowa pushes the tempo and isn’t afraid to let it fly from deep, specifically Clark, who has attempted 21 3-pointers the past two games (making 13 of those).

But it wasn’t just Clark doing damage against South Carolina’s top-ranked defense. Forward Monika Czinano played big with 18 points — including 6-of-6 on free throws — and guard Kate Martin scored seven points, hit two threes, and pulled down seven rebounds in the win.

Iowa’s defensive strategy against Louisiana State can’t be as laxed on the outside as it was against South Carolina, but expect to see some zone from Coach Bluder tonight. Even though LSU hasn’t shot the ball well during the tournament, the Tigers have a solid perimeter game that made big shots in the second half versus Virginia Tech.

The best thing Iowa can do to slow down LSU’s scoring is score the basketball at a high percentage. Virginia Tech was able to freeze the Tigers midway through Friday’s semifinal not by playing zone, but by making shots and forcing LSU to start possessions from the inbound. It was when VT went cold in the fourth quarter that the Tigers erupted for 29 points in the last 10 minutes.

Louisiana State wants to generate offense from defense, leaning into its stingy play without the basketball to stymie shooters and force turnovers — fueling a dangerous transition game that attacks the paint. The Tigers scored 54 of their total 79 points in the paint on Friday, either sprinting out for layups, dumping down to Reese around the rim, or crashing the glass for second looks.

Tonight’s total of 160.5 points is a significant jump from the closing 150.5-point total versus South Carolina, as well as the Hawkeyes’ Over/Under numbers of 149.5 and 150.5 in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight.

Louisiana State topped the 135-point total against Virginia Tech thanks to that fourth-quarter frenzy, and this championship total is a significant jump from that number, as well as the O/U from their Elite Eight meeting with Miami.

LSU vs Iowa betting trend to know

Iowa has shot 50{dec8eed80f8408bfe0c8cb968907362b371b4140b1eb4f4e531a2b1c1a9556e5} or better in 10 of its last 16 overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for LSU vs. Iowa.

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