With pitchers and catchers in camp, we are starting to get an idea of where players stand in regards to their health. A couple of pitchers are already eyeing IL stints, including Orioles righty Kyle Bradish, who has a UCL sprain.
Only a few free-agent dominoes have fallen during the MLB offseason but MLB futures are here with pitchers and catchers in camp and the rest of rosters soon to follow.
In addition to World Series odds, we’ve seen Cy Young odds take shape in addition to early MLB MVP odds. More MLB odds are readily available, too, as we inch closer to spring training and the eventual Opening Day.
With spring training underway, players are already feeling the pain as a couple of pitchers are either behind schedule or diagnosed with ominous injuries. Let’s take a look at the latest Cy Young odds.
Odds to win 2024 AL Cy Young award
Player | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Gerrit Cole | +500 | +500 | +500 | +590 |
Kevin Gausman | +700 | +700 | +600 | +700 |
Framber Valdez | +750 | +1,000 | +1,000 | +1,000 |
Corbin Burnes | +1,000 | +1,100 | +900 | +1,000 |
Pablo Lopez | +1,200 | +1,000 | +1,100 | +1,000 |
Luis Castillo | +1,300 | +1,200 | +1,100 | +1,200 |
George Kirby | +1,400 | +1,300 | +1,800 | +1,500 |
Tarik Skubal | +1,600 | +2,200 | +1,600 | +1,600 |
Logan Gilbert | +2,500 | +2,500 | +2,500 | +2,500 |
Dylan Cease | +2,500 | +3,000 | +2,500 | +3,300 |
Cole Ragans | +2,800 | +2,500 | +2,500 | +3,000 |
Nathan Eovaldi | +3,000 | +4,000 | +3,300 | +4,500 |
Kyle Bradish | +3,000 | +7,000 | +3,300 | +5,000 |
Shane Bieber | +3,000 | +5,000 | <+3,300> | +3,500 |
Justin Verlander | +3,000 | +5,000 | +3,300 | +4,000 |
Grayson Rodriguez | +3,000 | +3,000 | +2,500 | +2,500 |
Zach Eflin | +3,500 | +2,700 | +3,300 | +4,000 |
Odds as of February 19, 2023.
AL Cy Young odds analysis
2/19/2024: And now the injury news starts trickling out. Baltimore Orioles right-hander Kyle Bradish is dealing with a sprained UCL, which could cost him a large chunk of the season or more. That diagnosis is often, though not always, a precursor to Tommy John surgery. Not all books have reacted to this news, however, as DraftKings and bet365 are still trading him between +3,000 and +3,300. FanDuel has bumped his odds a bit more to +7,000, but with his season hanging in the balance, that’s a lot of risk to take on before a single pitch has been thrown.
Bradish’s teammate John Means is dealing with a setback to his throwing elbow. Means logged 23 2/3 innings last September as he returned from Tommy John and it looks like he’ll open the season on the injured list. Manager Brandon Hyde said the tentative plan is for Means to make his season debut at some point in April.
Similarly, Houston Astros veteran Justin Verlander said he’s a couple of weeks behind schedule due to a shoulder issue. At 40, the three-time Cy Young winner is understandably winding his career down despite being able to compete at a high level when healthy. It will depend on exactly how much time he misses or if he’s able to ramp up throughout spring to be ready for Opening Day.
Previous AL Cy Young action
2/12/2024: Other than some slight adjustments to Corbin Burnes’ odds at bet365 and Grayson Rodriguez seeing his number shorten to +2,500 at bet365 and Caesars, AL Cy Young odds have been mostly in a holding pattern as we await more moves.
2/4/2024: All right, now we’re cookin’. The Baltimore Orioles landed a massive fish in acquiring Corbin Burnes for Joey Ortiz and DL Hall. Ortiz is a talented infielder who might be all glove and no bat while Hall has long been touted as a rotation piece but control issues have limited him to the bullpen. Even if the Orioles don’t extend Burnes, he is a top-of-the-rotation arm they’ve sorely needed as the young core has emerged. They dealt from a position of strength and depth and nabbed a 29-year-old righty who owns a 3.26 ERA over 709 1/3 career innings since debuting in 2018. Now, his ERA has trended up and his strikeout rates have trended down since winning the NL Cy Young in 2021. It remains to be seen if this will continue or if a change of venue brings him back to his most dominant self. For now, he’s either fourth or fifth on the odds board a few weeks before pitchers and catchers report. If Burnes were able to pull it off with Baltimore, he would become the eighth pitcher to win a Cy Young in both the American League and National League, joining (in chronological order) Gaylord Perry, Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Roy Halladay, Max Scherzer, and Blake Snell — who accomplished the feat just last year as a member of the San Diego Padres.
1/15/2024: Marcus Stroman signed a multi-year pact with the New York Yankees, but is either not on the board at all yet or is distantly outside the favorites (+8,000 at Caesars). There isn’t a ton of variance from book to book, and Gerrit Cole is fairly firmly entrenched as the top option with Kevin Gausman right behind him.
1/2/2024: Not much has changed here since the last update. Gerrit Cole has seen his odds shorten at FanDuel while other books have started to open their markets. With Yoshinobu Yamamoto signing in the National League, there’s at least a little less competition for the New York Yankees ace to worry about in his attempt to win consecutive trophies.
12/14/2023: Win one Cy Young and you’re suddenly expected to do it all over again? That’s what’s happening for New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, who finally won his first Cy Young in 2023. AL East rival Kevin Gausman was one of the finalists and certainly has the stuff to challenge Cole. Sonny Gray, the third finalist, signed a contract with the St. Louis Cardinals and will be competing for NL honors this season. These odds should shuffle a bit as the offseason progresses. Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are still free agents. Yoshinobu Yamamoto still hasn’t signed, though there is widespread interest for his services. Tyler Glasnow might be on the verge of being dealt to the Los Angeles Dodgers and both Dylan Cease and Shane Bieber have had their names pop up in trade rumors. If they get traded to NL teams, they would switch odds boards. Also, the hype machine has caught up with Royals lefty Cole Ragans, whom Kansas City acquired from the Rangers in exchange for Aroldis Chapman last June. In 12 starts following the trade, Ragans went 5-2 with a 2.64 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with 89 strikeouts in 71 2/3 innings.
11/20/2023: It’s at least slightly surprising that Gerrit Cole waited this long to win his first Cy Young award. He probably should have won in 2019 when the honor fell to his then-teammate Justin Verlander on the Houston Astros. Though Cole’s numbers in 2023 weren’t as eye-popping as they have been in seasons past, he showcased a consistency and durability that many of his peers didn’t. He simply never got blown up, rarely issued walks, and kept the ball in the park. His 209 innings pitched represented a new career-high and his 2.63 ERA trailed only his 2015 and 2019 seasons. With the victory, Cole became the first Yankees pitcher to win a Cy Young since Roger Clemens in 2001. Sonny Gray and Kevin Gausman rounded out the Top 3.
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Odds to win 2024 NL Cy Young award
Player | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Spencer Strider | +550 | +550 | +500 | +600 |
Zack Wheeler | +800 | +850 | +800 | +900 |
Logan Webb | +950 | +1,000 | +900 | +1,000 |
Zac Gallen | +1,200 | +1,200 | +1,200 | +1,600 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto | +1,300 | +1,500 | <+1,200> | +1,400 |
Max Fried | +1,300 | +1,300 | +1,400 | +1,400 |
Kodai Senga | +1,500 | +1,600 | +1,400 | +1,800 |
Justin Steele | +1,500 | +1,600 | +1,400 | +2,200 |
Tyler Glasnow | +1,900 | +1,700 | +1,600 | +2,000 |
Aaron Nola | +2,200 | +2,500 | +2,500 | +2,800 |
Sonny Gray | +2,500 | +3,000 | +2,500 | +2,800 |
Jesus Luzardo | +3,000 | +3,000 | <+2,800> | +3,000 |
Freddy Peralta | +3,000 | +3,000 | +2,800 | +4,500 |
Eduardo Rodriguez | +3,000 | +3,000 | +3,300 | +5,000 |
Bobby Miller | +3,500 | +3,500 | +4,000 | +3,500 |
Mitch Keller | +3,500 | +4,000 | +4,000 | +3,500 |
Merrill Kelly | +3,500 | +4,200 | +4,000 | +5,000 |
Joe Musgrove | +3,500 | +3,500 | +4,000 | +5,000 |
Odds as of February 19, 2024.
NL Cy Young analysis
2/19/24: There haven’t been any high-profile injuries or signings in the Senior Circuit in the last couple of weeks and we haven’t seen much movement. Keep an eye on workouts, though, as we’ll get a clearer picture of where pitchers stand as the season approaches.
One thing that finally happened is Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto is now listed at bet365. However, that also happens to be where he’s drawing the shortest odds at the moment.
Previous NL Cy Young action
2/12/24: Lines haven’t seen any movement since Corbin Burnes was traded to the Baltimore Orioles. Now we wait and see if Blake Snell stays in the NL or if Jordan Montgomery returns.
2/4/24: Corbin Burnes went from fourth on the NL board to fourth in the AL. Atlanta Braves right-hander Spencer Strider looks like he’ll enter the regular season with the shortest odds to claim his first Cy Young with Philadelphia Phillies righty Zack Wheeler and San Francisco Giants ace Logan Webb rounding out the Top 3.
1/15/24: Caesars has updated its ranks to include Aaron Nola, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Sonny Gray. And if you’re shopping for value, it’s offering the best odds for several competitors. Yoshinobu Yamamoto remains OTB at bet365 and is between +1,200 and +1,600 at the other books.
1/2/24: The Los Angeles Dodgers went shopping and landed Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the most coveted free agent on the pitching market this offseason. Yes, even moreso than reigning NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell, who remains without a team for 2024 at the moment. Books have been careful with his odds (bet365 doesn’t have him listed yet) as the transition from Japan to MLB isn’t always smooth right off the bat. Still, 16/1 might be the best we see, especially if he starts strong. He also doesn’t have the chronic injury risk associated with him that fellow new Dodger Tyler Glasnow does. As a result, while the right-hander’s stuff is clearly elite, he’s drawing longer odds in his move to the NL. Weirdly, Caesars doesn’t have Aaron Nola, Eduardo Rodriguez, or Sonny Gray listed. They were each free agents earlier in the offseason but their deals were inked a while ago and that FA status didn’t stop them from listing Yamamoto.
12/14/23: Spencer Strider wasn’t among the finalists in 2023, but he did dominate opposing hitters for much of the season. No one even touched his strikeout numbers. He punched out 36.8% of opponents, leading all qualified starters. Only three other SPs had strikeout rates north of 30% and eventual NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell was tops at 31.5%. Like with a couple of AL names, we could be in for some trades on this front. The most notable name that could be on the block is former Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes. The Brewers might be headed for a rebuild and would be in a decent position to expedite the process by dealing the right-hander. Burnes has just one year of team control remaining and it’s unlikely the three-time All-Star signs an extension. Two pitchers who have jumped from the Junior Circuit are Sonny Gray and Eduardo Rodriguez. Gray was a finalist for the AL award in 2023 after recording arguably the best season of his career. E-Rod, meanwhile, came back admirably from injury to post a career-best 3.30 ERA while going 13-9 with 143 strikeouts in 152 2/3 innings across 26 starts. He will offer better stability to the middle of the Diamondbacks rotation.
9/25/23: The primary knock against Blake Snell in 2023 was his walk rate. On the surface, this criticism makes sense as his 13.3% walk rate was the highest of his career and was the highest among all qualified starters this season. But, he simply didn’t allow any hits. Snell maintained a 2.25 ERA across 180 innings despite all those baserunners thanks in large part to his 11.7 K/9 (31.5 K%). Now a free agent, his status as a two-time Cy Young winner (previously winning in 2018 with the Rays) will likely garner him a lucrative contract. Logan Webb and Zac Gallen were the other finalists.
Previous Cy Young Award winners
Here are the last 10 winners of the AL and NL Cy Young Award, with Cleveland and the New York Mets each leading the way with three. Overall, the Brooklyn/Los Angeles Dodgers have the most Cy Youngs all time (12), followed by the Milwaukee/Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox, and Mets with seven.
Pitchers with multiple Cy Young Awards
There are 22 pitchers who have won multiple Cy Young Awards, led by Roger Clemens’ seven trophies. Of those 22 winners, six are still currently active in the Majors.
Pitcher | Number of Cy Young Awards (Years) |
---|---|
Roger Clemens | 7 (1986, 1987, 1991, 1997, 1998, 2001, 2004) |
Randy Johnson | 5 (1995, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002) |
Steve Carlton | 4 (1972, 1977, 1980, 1982 |
Greg Maddux | 4 (1992, 1993, 1994, 1995) |
Seven different pitchers | 3 |
11 different pitchers | 2 |
Popular MLB futures markets
Understanding Cy Young odds
Most sportsbooks will display odds in the American format as listed above. When Shane Bieber looked to have the AL Cy Young locked up in 2020, his odds had a minus (-) sign ahead of the number.
That means that a bettor in September had to wager $300 to win $100 by betting on Bieber. Before this year’s race even began, every candidate had a (+) sign in front of their number.
With deGrom’s preseason odds, a bettor stands to profit $550 for every $100 wagered on him.
If American odds aren’t your thing, simply use a tool like our odds converter to switch the odds to decimal or fractional format. Most online sportsbooks also give you the option to change the odds format that you see.
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MLB Cy Young Odds
Gerrit Cole is the early betting favorite after winning his first Cy Young in 2023.
Atlanta Braves right-hander Spencer Strider is the betting favorite to win NL Cy Young.
New York Yankees right-hander Gerrit Cole won the AL Cy Young while free-agent left-hander Blake Snell won in the NL as a member of the San Diego Padres.
Roger Clemens won seven Cy Young awards throughout his career. Only one other pitcher, Randy Johnson, has even won five.