Blue Grass Stakes Handicapping Picks
Horse racing gamblers are you looking for 2024 Blue Grass Stakes Free Pick & Handicapping Odds…plus some predictions? Need some advice on who to take? The 2024 (G1) Blue Grass Stakes is set for April 6 at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, KY. Here’s a preview of our top contenders.
Blue Grass Stakes Preview
- Race: Blue Grass Stakes
- Purse: $1 million
- Track: Keeneland Race Course
- Date: April 6
- Post Time: 5:52 PM (ET)
- Live: Blue Grass Stakes Odds: Click Here
Before we can give you our expert 2024 Blue Grass Stakes free pick, we have to break down the entries! In fact, we’d love to hear from you after you’ve given this post a read to see if you see an angle that we don’t!
2024 Blue Grass Stakes Handicapping
One of three races on the Saturday schedule from three different tracks that are major qualifiers for the 2024 Kentucky Derby, the (G1) Blue Grass will award Derby points on a 100-50-25-15-10 scale to the top five finishers.
The race will feature a highly anticipated rematch between Dornoch and Sierra Leone, a pair that staged an epic stretch drive battle four months ago in the (G2) Remsen Stakes, with the former prevailing by a nose.
Eleven starters are expected to go to the Keeneland gate for the Blue Grass, and they’ll run 1 1/8 miles on the dirt track.
Odds listed here are provided by the Keeneland Race Course track oddsmaker.
2024 Blue Grass Stakes Free Pick & Handicapping: Sierra Leone Race Odds: 2-1
Going into the final turn in the Remsen, Sierra Leone was sitting 10th – and last – in the field, trailing the leader by more than eight lengths. When asked to go, he made a visually impressive sweeping move, all the way from last to first and looked the winner when he passed pace-setter Dornoch in mid-stretch.
That move may have taken a bit too much out of him, as Dornoch was able to fight back and get the win. But he bounced right back to win his next start, the (G2) Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds, finishing ahead of Catching Freedom, who two weeks ago won the Louisiana Derby.
2024 Blue Grass Stakes Free Pick & Handicapping: Dornoch Race Odds: 3-1
After running second in his first two lifetime starts, Dornoch has now won three straight, including the aforementioned Remsen as well as the last month’s (G2) Fountain Of Youth at Gulfstream Park.
There could be an argument that multiple scratches in that race watered down the field, and the front-running Dornoch had an easy time controlling the pace. At the same time, that was run at only 1 1/16 miles, and he looks like a colt that likes more distance. And you don’t often see horses that look passed-and-beaten battle back to win, as he did in the Remsen.
It should also be noted that he broke his maiden with a 6 1/2 length victory on a fast Keeneland track last October, so he has some affinity for the surface.
Just A Touch Race Odds: 7-2
The lightly raced Just A Touch didn’t race as a two-year-old, only making his career debut with a first-out win at Fair Grounds in late January.
From there he stepped right up graded-stakes company to run second going one mile in the (G3) Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct. He was beaten two lengths by Deterministic, the likely favourite for the (G2) Wood Memorial, which is also Saturday at Aqueduct.
Both of Just A Touch’s starts have come over sloppy tracks, and he’ll be stretching beyond the Gotham’s one-mile distance for the first time.
Encino Race Odds: 12-1
On paper Encino is showing the kind of race-to-race improvement that you like to see at this time of year, as he went from second by a neck, to winning by a half length, to winning by a full length in three consecutive lifetime races. He also increased his Brisnet speed rating each time out.
The question regards the fact all three of those races have come over the artificial surface at Turfway Park, and here he tries real dirt for the first time. If he can handle it, he could contend at big odds.
Here’s My 2024 Blue Grass Stakes Free Pick.
What to do, what to do?
Between the top two contenders here, there’s little to choose. As mentioned, when they last met Dornoch prevailed, but just by a nose. Both horses are Grade 2 winners, both horses have been putting up Brisnet speed figures in the 90s. Both horses have been beating others that have come back to win, and both have never run worse than second in their combined eight starts.
But they have completely different running styles, with Dornoch a confirmed front-runner, and Sierra Leone a confirmed one-run closer.
And therein lies the difference. All things being equal, I’ll take the front-runner that can control the pace and stay clear of traffic trouble over the closer that will be chasing the pace and will likely need another big, wide move to get past the traffic as they run for home.
Dornoch for the win.
Full Field: 2024 Blue Grass Stakes Odds
By post position
- #1 – Top Conor 15-1
- #2 – Be You 8-1
- #3 – Seize The Grey 20-1
- #4 – Dornoch 3-1
- #5 – Good Money 20-1
- #6 – Just A Touch 7-2
- #7 – Lat Long 30-1
- #8 – Epic Ride 20-1
- #9 – Mugatu 30-1
- #10 – Sierra Leone 2-1
- #11 – Encino 12-1
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